• The Trump administration’s NHTSA unveiled a proposed rollback to the current CAFE timeline, requiring a 34.5 miles per gallon fleet average by model year 2031 instead of the previous 50.4 MPG target established under the prior administration.
• NHTSA’s own analysis shows this change could cut upfront vehicle costs by roughly $930 for consumers but increase total U.S. gasoline consumption by ~100 billion gallons through 2050 and boost CO₂ emissions by about 5% compared with the previous rule.
• The proposal also includes modifications to CAFE’s credit trading system and reflects broader policy efforts to ease regulatory burdens on automakers.
Impact:
On automakers:
🔹 Traditional OEMs (Ford, GM, Stellantis) benefit from reduced compliance pressure and lower projected costs through 2031, easing the transition burden to higher efficiency and EV fleets. Reuters
On consumers/market:
🔹 New vehicles could be cheaper to buy due to lower efficiency compliance costs. Reuters
🔹 However, owners may pay more at the pump over time because of increased fuel consumption and could face higher total cost of ownership.