Last year, China replaced Japan for the first time to become the world’s largest car exporter, breaking Japan’s first seven consecutive car exports. According to data from the China Automobile Association and the Japan Automobile Association, Japan’s automobile export volume was 4.42 million in 2023, an increase of 16%year -on -year, and the export volume of Chinese automobiles was 4.91 million units at the same time, up 58%year -on -year.
The China Automobile Association predicts that China’s total car sales will exceed 31 million in 2024, an increase of more than 3%year -on -year. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 26.8 million units, a year -on -year increase of 3%; commercial vehicle sales were 4.2 million units, an increase of 4%year -on -year. Among them, exports will continue to grow to a scale of 5.5 million vehicles.
In 2023, the US auto market ended with the sales of “15.6 million vehicles and a year -on -year increase of 13%”, and set the highest annual sales since the new crown epidemic. Among them, in December alone, American car sales increased by 16%year -on -year, reaching 1.49 million units, much higher than expected.
GlobalData believes that the sales results of the US auto market benefit from two aspects: on the one hand, the rising automobile inventory, including the concessions of the year -end discounts, and other favorable factors seem to attract more consumers from all over the United States. On the other hand A larger discount, and in some cases, turn more sales to the team sales.
Although compared with the limited stock in 2022, the US auto market has greatly improved in 2023, the challenges are expected to continue at the end of 2023. Analysts and predictions of the automotive industry predict that the sales volume of new American vehicles in 2024 will be between 15.6 million and 16.1 million vehicles.
Cowks predicts that the sales volume of new US cars in 2024 will increase by less than 2%, which means that sales are unlikely to exceed 17 million vehicles soon. In view of the five consecutive years of sales of the US auto market before the new crown epidemic, the US auto market was unable to return to its peak level in 2024. In this regard, some analysts said: “Due to the decline in consumer burden, the new sales standard in the American automobile industry is close to 16 million. We have lost about 10%of buyers.”
In 2023, the sales of new European cars were about 12.85 million, an increase of 13.7%year -on -year. Among them, from January to November, the monthly sales of new European car markets have maintained a year -on -year growth trend. However, due to the weakening of local consumers’ enthusiasm for electric vehicles, the sales volume of new cars in Europe reached 1.05 million in December, a decrease of 3.8%year -on -year, ending the continuous growth trend of 16 months.
It is worth mentioning that in Europe’s largest automotive market, due to the government’s early end of electric vehicle incentives, Germany’s new car sales in December fell by nearly a quarter. The German Automobile Association VDA is currently expected to fall by 1%year -on -year in the 2024 German passenger car market, behind the global passenger car market growth.
Regarding the prospects of the overall European auto market in 2024, Bloomberg pointed out that, in view of the rise in loan costs, economic downturn in some regions of Europe, and the growing pessimistic emotions of electric vehicles, the growth rate of new European vehicles in 2024 is expected to slow to 5%.
Bernestein analysts said in a report last month that the demand for suppressed has begun to fade. Automotive dealers and manufacturers “will soon face a full impact of downturn”, which may lower the price of car manufacturers and squeeze the return rate of car manufacturers.
As China, the United States and European automobile markets ended with good results, India surpassed Japan again and ranked the third largest automotive market in the world. With the increase of India’s population, Indian cars have sold more than 4.8 million vehicles, of which the sales volume of passenger cars alone reached a record of 4 million units, unlocking a new milestone and helping them to consolidate the world’s third largest automotive market.
In contrast, although the problem of the global semiconductor shortage has been eased, car manufacturers have increased production, and the Japanese new car market has increased by 14%year -on -year with the monthly sales of “maintenance growth in June in June” (the first increase in five years in five years has increased for the first time in five years. ), More than 4.7 million units, but failed to return to the level before the new crown epidemic in 2019, so I regret losing the title of the third largest auto market in the world again.
Although the monthly car sales in South Korea have fallen year -on -year, the sales of new cars in 2023 have achieved one -digit growth. In the case of rising interest rates and weak consumer confidence, the Korean automobile market seems to be entering the downward cycle, but GlobalData predicts that the Korean light automobile market will continue to maintain a growth trend in 2023, reaching 1.77 million units (an increase of 3.7%year -on -year).
As the sales of the remaining 17 countries have increased, only new cars in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia have declined compared with 2022.
Indonesia is the largest automotive market in Southeast Asia. Due to the increase in interest rates to suppress consumers’ demand for large commodities such as cars, Indonesia fell by 4.0%to 1005,802 vehicles in 2023, while the Indonesian Automobile Manufacturers Association (Gaikindo) was 2023 October is the benchmark forecast of 1.05 million vehicles. Gaikindo’s chairman Jongkie Sugiarto said that the sales target in Indonesia this year is 1.1 million.
Thailand is the third largest automotive market in Southeast Asia, second only to Indonesia and Malaysia. Last year, as the Central Bank of Thailand raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.5%to 2.5%, the automobile financing company increased the loan interest rate and tightened the loan standard. The automobile market has been in a decline in more than a year. Therefore, after the initial rebound of the new crown epidemic (12%in 2022), Thailand’s car sales fell by 9%to 775,780 in 2023.
In general, the recovery of global light vehicle demand is stronger than expected, and this year is expected to continue to maintain a growth trend. Due to the support of the needs of consumers with continuous depression, the supply chain and demand are further recovering. The recovery of light vehicle production continues to promote the inventory supplementary work in many regions. Relevant agencies predict that global light vehicle sales will reach 92.4 million vehicles in 2024, which is year -on -year Growing 2%.
However, the recovery of the global auto market is full of uncertainty: the increase in interest rates, the improvement of the supply chain, the tightening of the burden, the rise in the price of the new car, the unstable consumer confidence, the concerns of energy prices and supply, the risk of car loan, and the risk of car loan, and The “pain” of electrification transformation continues.
Analyst COLIN COUCHMAN said: “We are cautious about the recovery of the global auto market in 2024. The automotive industry will get rid of the obvious supply side risk and enter a more vague macro demand environment. Considering the support of intervention policies, especially in terms of incentives, subsidies, industrial policies, and OEM planning goals, how will electric vehicle demand develop. “