S&P Global Aftermarket Outlook: High New-Car Prices and Aging Fleets Deliver Sustained Dividends to Independent Repairers

Released in May 2026, the latest S&P Global report forecasts that by the end of 2026, out-of-warranty vehicles will account for a staggering 84% of the European fleet, with the average vehicle age historically crossing 14 years.

The report details that driven by stubbornly high new car pricing, consumer anxiety regarding the residual values of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and elevated borrowing costs, global car owners are holding onto their vehicles significantly longer in 2026. In Europe alone, approximately 371 million out-of-warranty cars will require aftermarket servicing by year-end. However, this massive market brings complexity—over 132 million of these aging vehicles are equipped with varying levels of ADAS, demanding sophisticated diagnostic equipment and secure data access from independent workshops.

Impact:

1. Robust Market Fundamentals: An aging vehicle population provides a resilient, recession-proof foundation of rigid demand for independent repair networks and replacement part distributors.

2. Hardware & Software Upgrades: Forces independent service providers to increase capital expenditures on digital diagnostic licensing and cyber-secure scanning tools to properly interface with complex vehicle architectures.